New York Times
By BENNY MORRIS
Using Bombs to Stave Off War
ISRAEL will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful[…], because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.
[…]the American public has little enthusiasm for wars in the Islamic lands. This curtails the White House’s ability to begin yet another major military campaign in pursuit of a goal that is not seen as a vital national interest by many Americans.
The Iranians will also likely retaliate by attacking Israel’s cities with ballistic missiles[…] and by activating international Muslim terrorist networks against Israeli and Jewish — and possibly American targets worldwide.
Thus an Israeli nuclear strike to prevent the Iranians from taking the final steps toward getting the bomb is probable.
[…]the best they could hope for is that Israel’s conventional air assault will destroy their nuclear facilities. To be sure, this would mean thousands of Iranian casualties and international humiliation. But the alternative is an Iran turned into a nuclear wasteland.