Printed in the Daily Star
70% reject a second Lisbon referendum
57% would vote No in a Treaty rerun.
A new opinion poll shows that 70% of people do not want a rerun of the Lisbon Treaty. The poll also shows that if a new treaty was forced upon the electorate that it would end up being heavily defeated.
The poll was carried out by former staff members of the Catholic Hibernian magazine, who have now set up their own non-profit social affairs research organization Gael Poll.
Famously the last Hibernian opinion poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.
On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.
The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.
At the time more established and heavily funded opinion polls were all over the place, and indicating that the Lisbon Treaty would be passed.
Last week Gael Poll polled 501 respondents in Dublin, Cork and Limerick. The respondents were asked two straightforward questions:
Do you want another referendum on the Lisbon Treaty?
A clear 57% said No as opposed to 23% who said Yes with 20% of people undecided.
When pollsters discounted the don’t knows: an overwhelming 70% of people indicated that they did not want a rerun of the Lisbon Treaty, as opposed to 30% who did.
When people were asked their voting intentions if the Government obtained declarations on: abortion, same sex marriages, neutrality, corporate tax and an EU Commissioner and decided to hold a rerun of the treaty on this basis.
The results were 44% No and 29% Yes with 27% undecided. If the undecided ended up on polling day voting in even numbers for both sides, pollsters concluded that the results could be a dramatic:
57 % for the No side versus 43% for the Yes camp.
The pollsters say that the in-depth survey provides a snapshot of the public mood and represents a good indicator of opinion on the street. If that is the case, the Government is skating on very thin ice.
With speculation mounting that the Government intends to announce a new Lisbon Treaty referendum in the coming week, the poll makes for grim reading and points to certain defeat. An outcome, which many believe could lead to the Government collapsing.